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Trying to predict future political moves makes forecasting markets look easy ...




If only we knew ... I guess it gets easier to think ... would I buy a load of Apple stock now at the current...

Your inbox is full ...

Who knows. But with record high levels maybe all the good news is already priced in.

I’ve pm’ed you the details.

I don’t want to name the fund but it’s given 0% over 7 years, pick your benchmark.

It does include bonds, commodities and REITs. It would have done ok without the trend following function.

I assume the logic would apply to a stock index just as it would and individual stock?

Seems very simplistic to me.

I follow a multi asset fund that uses a trend following algorithm like that. The performance has been dire.

Are you trading your pension on these cross overs?

So do we all ... if we could do that with any reliability we'd all be minted ... it's difficult and most fund managers can't do it so there is no reason to think I could ... I have tried ... I'm on a...

Yep, that works too ... just buy high sell low you need to avoid ...

True, he also says buy low sell high ...

Aye most World Trackers are US dominated because the US dominates world markets ... what's your thinking about wanting more US focus??? Currently at all time highs ...

I did some analysis on this...

https://www.ftadviser.com/investments/2024/02/06/vanguard-to-launch-app-for-uk-investors/

in the USA

https://investor.vanguard.com/client-benefits/mobile-apps

Thanks for that recommendation, useful, bit basic and limited to 6 funds which is just enough for my needs.

I believe Vanguard will be rolling out an app this year ... bit strange they don't have...

Ah ... if you know please advise as that is the big question ... usually not the sector that has just enjoyed a big melt up ...

The bottom line is no one knows so the best you can do is diversify...

Aye, because 47% of global markets are the USA as shown in the above graphic, I think the more important thing to know is what markets are excluded from some “global” funds. E.g India and China.

That fund is 58% in the USA. Top holdings the magnificent 7 so has benefitted from the tech boom in the last year.

With that bigger gap to the benchmark it can’t be trying to track the benchmark as tracking error is usually small. Not 6% different…

Well done for taking a look, that must be some sort of global active fund, that seems to be underperforming the index / benchmark.

Glad you found it of interest, I do think the industry could do more to make investment easier.

Ah, right … that’s what I do to …

I guess my point was that many “global” funds have zero emerging markets coverage which means no India or China, and others.

Indeed but that isn’t the MSCI World Index.

Do you hold a fund that tracks MSCI ACWI? It likely gives less than 2% India exposure.

What global tracker do you hold that includes India?

I think many buy a global tracker without really understanding what is under the bonnet. In some ways the titles are misleading.

If you think India will surge in the next 20 years and you hold a MSCI World Tracker you will miss out on any gain for the reasons explained above.

Some interesting comments here, the key is not to be lazy and do a bit of research. There is loads of info on YT and elsewhere.

Below is not advice just sharing my own observations. I'm not and...