Used Car Shortage.

[Backward point]

I covered approximately 3,000 miles in 11 months in my Golf R thanks to lockdown, and decided that I couldn't justify keeping it under the present circumstances. I bought it last summer for £19,000.

WBAC came up with an offer of £19,675. I spoke to my local VW dealer, and agreed a deal involving a low-mileage Up! with a two-year warranty and £13,600 for it.

If I want to go anywhere, I need to get up a bit earlier in the morning, but right now it's like being paid to have a car. £20 annual tax and 60+ mpg compensate to a degree for the loss of the Golf. And as I'm selling off a few things to repay (most of) my mortgage, it seemed like a good idea. So right now, I'm playing the long game as far as car ownership is concerned, as I'm not yet convinced that electricity is the propulsion of the future, and although fossil fuels appear to have a finite life, owning a car which uses so little of the stuff that it's not a concern means that I can wait and see where the future really lies - for example, JCB have developed an engine which runs on hydrogen, which could be a game-changer. Anybody trumpeting the virtues of electric power for cars should investigate the costs of having to replace a battery pack four or five years down the line, once it's been through a few thousand charging cycles.

Obviously, the prices currently offered for clean, low-mileage ICE powered cars won't last, the bubble will burst once the chip shortage is addressed and production returns to normal, although there will be a period of adjustment to take up the supply shortage. Let's see what happens to values of ICE cars in two or three years time.

[Dave+63]

I'm playing the long game as far as car ownership is concerned, as I'm not yet convinced that electricity is the propulsion of the future, and although fossil fuels appear to have a finite life, owning a car which uses so little of the stuff that it's not a concern means that I can wait and see where the future really lies - for example, JCB have developed an engine which runs on hydrogen, which could be a game-changer. Anybody trumpeting the virtues of electric power for cars should investigate the costs of having to replace a battery pack four or five years down the line, once it's been through a few thousand charging cycles.

You clearly haven’t a clue about electric vehicles; battery replacement costs are no more of an issue than engine/gearbox replacement costs of an ICE vehicle and I’m sure you didn’t investigate those when buying your UP!

[AlphaOmega]

Well, I had a chat with Honda when I was looking to buy a CR-Z.

They only warranty the batteries for a certain period (IIRC eight years) and then it was a £2k replacement when needed.

I think the thing is that Honda ICE hardly ever let go, so it seemed to me a more likely cost I would incur if I did what I usually do and run a car for a long time.

[Dave+63]

Well, I had a chat with Honda when I was looking to buy a CR-Z.

They only warranty the batteries for a certain period (IIRC eight years) and then it was a £2k replacement when needed.

I think the thing is that Honda ICE hardly ever let go, so it seemed to me a more likely cost I would incur if I did what I usually do and run a car for a long time.

Just because the warranty is only eight years, it doesn’t mean that it won’t last longer; how long was the warranty on the engine?

I’ve run a small (24kwhr nissan Env200) van for six years now without any significant battery degradation. I fully expect it to continue to meet my requirements for another 10-15 years. Most EV batteries are repurposed elsewhere once they are taken from the car for whatever reason so even when the car has ceased to be, they go in being useful.

My engine/gearbox analogy really does hold true and no one talks about the cost of replacing them when buying a new car.

[snowman]

My engine/gearbox analogy really does hold true and no one talks about the cost of replacing them when buying a new car.

Obviously never owned a rotary!

I can understand a certain amount of skepticism around the longevity of batteries - They're (I understand) pretty much the same as phone batteries massively duplicated, but phone batteries don't have a great record of retaining their charge over many years.

I'm sure battery technology is advancing as the motor industry ramps up its demands on suppliers, but that only suggests that what you buy today will be yesterday's technology when you come to sell/trade-in. You could argue ICEs are already that, but at least it is a mature technology that isn't likely to be dramatically improved on in 5-10 years' time.

In ten years' time it'll be interesting to see whether you're right and there really is no reason to doubt their life and/or where the technology has got to.

Either way, I'm happy to stick with at least one ICE in the house for a bit longer.

M

[Backward point]

Just because the warranty is only eight years, it doesn’t mean that it won’t last longer; how long was the warranty on the engine?

I’ve run a small (24kwhr nissan Env200) van for six years now without any significant battery degradation. I fully expect it to continue to meet my requirements for another 10-15 years. Most EV batteries are repurposed elsewhere once they are taken from the car for whatever reason so even when the car has ceased to be, they go in being useful.

My engine/gearbox analogy really does hold true and no one talks about the cost of replacing them when buying a new car.

How do you charge your batteries? There is talk that fast-charging kills batteries, so perhaps overnight charging from a domestic 3-pin socket might be kinder, and improve longevity.

[Dave+63]

How do you charge your batteries? There is talk that fast-charging kills batteries, so perhaps overnight charging from a domestic 3-pin socket might be kinder, and improve longevity.

There has been lots of talk about battery charging but I charge overnight to 100% using my charge point. My van will only charge at 3.3kw or 50kw rapid which I don’t do often.

I’ve long since stopped worrying about whether I’m doing it right and just do what I need when I need.

[Skier]

I bought an RS6 a year ago, almost to the day, and have been phoned twice this week by the dealership I purchased it from asking if they could buy it back. I haven't had an offer from them as I'm not interested in selling the car.

[Backward point]

You clearly haven’t a clue about electric vehicles; battery replacement costs are no more of an issue than engine/gearbox replacement costs of an ICE vehicle and I’m sure you didn’t investigate those when buying your UP!

Well, one of us will be right. And, Mazda rotary engines notwithstanding, there aren't many ICE's with useful lives of less than 100,000+ miles on offer these days. Gearboxes are quite reliable, as well.

[dougair]

To be honest if after 8years I had to pay £2k for new batteries I’d be ok with that. I’m leaning towards an 2018 XC60 T8 at the moment, I can run on electric only 95% of the time.

[Backward point]

To be honest if after 8years I had to pay £2k for new batteries I’d be ok with that. I’m leaning towards an 2018 XC60 T8 at the moment, I can run on electric only 95% of the time.

£2k labour to fit the batteries, maybe. Right now, the batteries for a Renault Zoe or Nissan Leaf are in the region of £7k-£10k, although this will reduce over time, with more and more people changing to electric.

But how will the looming spectre of battery replacement costs affect the values of used cars? The potential depreciation and cost of battery replacement will be factored into leasing costs, obviously. The sensible way to own an electric car appears to be on a two or three year lease, then hand it back and lease another one, but even so, the monthly payments will need to cover the potentially high costs of battery replacement and depreciation.

[AlphaOmega]

Just because the warranty is only eight years, it doesn’t mean that it won’t last longer; how long was the warranty on the engine?

I’ve run a small (24kwhr nissan Env200) van for six years now without any significant battery degradation. I fully expect it to continue to meet my requirements for another 10-15 years. Most EV batteries are repurposed elsewhere once they are taken from the car for whatever reason so even when the car has ceased to be, they go in being useful.

My engine/gearbox analogy really does hold true and no one talks about the cost of replacing them when buying a new car.

Good question.

Not sure how long the warranty on the engine was but I do know Honda used to brag that they had never had a stock Vtec engine let go. Or something like that.

To be honest if after 8years I had to pay £2k for new batteries I’d be ok with that. I’m leaning towards an 2018 XC60 T8 at the moment, I can run on electric only 95% of the time.

Yes. The only slight flaw is that I was looking at buying a very low mileage dealer car that was about six years old at the time.