Hi Guys,
Just wanted to open up discussion on Brexit and the impact on watch market.
Are we looking at a subdued demand and a consequent decrease in prices here.
I don't think so. You're talking about a worldwide market with the bulk of producers based abroad, so I think we are looking at price increases as a result of a weakend pound with a consequential strengthening of prices on the secondary market. We shall see...Originally Posted by owais01
Last edited by cmcm3; 24th June 2016 at 10:35.
Well, you're going to see prices rise in the premium market, both new / grey and secondhand.
At this moment I find that I am unable to access Iconic's site --- some hasty repricing, I'm guessing!
Some of us have quietly been buying up grey stock over the last month.
Just as when prices soared from 2008-2012, it won't affect sales of such watches.
While others saw a Rolex price rise as already settled to happen at the end of this month, I restate my position that the UK was on a "watch and see" basis. Now that they have watched and seen what we all have, I think there is a good chance of some price adjustment imminently.
Must go, have some serious activity on the gold and watch markets to take care of !
Haywood
It will be interesting to see. There maybe a number of UK buyers who are less likely to spend their money with so much financial uncertainty in the air. I am not convinced there will be any price hike as it may just put more people off.
The only certainty is that it is uncertain.
with the value of the pound dropping and uk rrp being based on conversion from swiss francs, i think its safe to say that we're going to see increases in prices. the only uncertainty is "how much?"
My analysis is based on current forecasting of interest rates, mortgages and house prices. It might go up, it might go down, or it might stay the same.
I believe that rolexes and omegas will increase vastly in the coming months, both new and secondhand, they will then become the premium form of currency within the UK, with normal folk throwing away any worries about downturns, recessions, etc and getting even more debt to buy a bargain 8k steel rolex from TK Maxx
Jon Snow (the proper one) with a "watcho-swing-ameter"
If the stock market continues its current plunge I'll need to sell my watches to feed the family.
And then sell the family to feed myself.
Not sure what I'll do then - Eat NATO straps maybe?
Of course investments can go down as well as up, so we'll see...
M
BBC News have just updated Brexit reports with an interview featuring horology industry experts; the key statement was that there is panic amongst new ceramic Daytona owners. Most now realised that they should have taken a reasonable uplift, instead of covertly trying to sell that exorbitant figures. There were further fears of mass shipping sticker removal creating a sticky mess in landfill sights across the UK.
Don't worry, WWIII is on the way isn't it
First thing I did this morning was go to Iconic watches to see if I could get a good price on something due to the £ - € exchange rate. Like Haywood mentions, I couldn't log on. I'll just have to wait and see.
Ultimately, I don't think it will matter, like smokers and drinkers, we'll pay, whatever the cost!!
Do we think servicing prices amongst the main players will increase also?
I laughed out loud at this comment.If the stock market continues its current plunge I'll need to sell my watches to feed the family.
And then sell the family to feed myself.
Not sure what I'll do then - Eat NATO straps maybe?
Of course investments can go down as well as up, so we'll see...
M
I think its more wait and see-I dont think there will be huge changes, I may be wrong.
Thats because China and the FarEast hoovered up the watch market/luxury market after the credit crunch , infact it it cause a boom in luxury watches in the Far east, there economies are now stagnating and luxury sales/watch sales have been declining.
Price rises could be stomached back then because of a huge demand from the FarEast and a lot of them were bought in the UK (Hence Mappin & Webb/Wos etc have big displays for the "Chinese New year,mandarin speakers etc) but that foreign demand has slumped.
Last edited by jonny; 24th June 2016 at 12:51.
They could be in trouble overall. Their business model seems to revolve around buying watches from European sources and reselling over here. But the new situation may involve tariffs and other regulations meaning that business model may no longer be viable.
Maybe we'll all have to start paying proper MSRP in future!
As far as I can see the watch I was hoping to buy from Italy on Chrono24, if remain won and the pound moved higher, will be back out of reach this morning. Then again perhaps I should buy it quickly before I have to start paying VAT on it. Or should I hold out and wait for the Euro to collapse when the rest of the EU falls apart? In all seriousness though it will be a right royal pain in the *** if we can't buy from the whole of Europe on C24 and eBay without import charges and VAT - in case anyone hasn't noticed, prices here are always sky high and we'll be stuck paying them from here on. Meanwhile the Swiss Franc seems to always rise when there's instability, while the pound is in free fall, so new watches will be even worse. It might be best to make the most of this transition period, but unfortunately the uncertain outlook doesn't make me feel confident spending on luxuries.
Never mind. On the positive side though we have Bremont's Independence Day Limited Edition to look forward to.
None of the sales boom I experienced in my stores in the North West of England had any connection to the Far East.
Up here that usually means Sheffield, anyway.
H
Lol... With a lock of Boris Johnson's hair in the in the sapphire caseback.
Well put. But don't forget the added charges. Such as having to pay Royal Mail or other services the added bonus of paying your tax (I have no problem with Tax) but get fed up with the charges I have to pay to the postal services for that pleasure.
No, but let's not forget that in the lifetime of my grandmother (who is now 103), there have been two world wars that both began in Europe. We forget our history at our peril.Don't worry, WWIII is on the way isn't it
where the impact will be is in relation to import duties, Buying a watch, even from someone on here will now also add import duties for someone like me in Ireland, so, will be more reluctant to buy as you are no longer in the EU and cant avail of the trade deals so its gonna cost me more, it Is like buying from the US...fees...duties...fees = I just wont buy other than from someone in the EU, and the reverse I think is the same, you by from some chap in Italy...you aint in the EU, so you pay duties
** (I could be totally wrong)
DT
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=CHF
Looks like Swiss watches just went up in price 8% overnight. Slow hand clap...
I guess the only silver lining is we own a lot of them already!
Ha ha!
Last edited by Bootsy; 24th June 2016 at 17:13.
Surely the changes to costs in other things in life have much more consequence to your wallet than the watch market. This would be the last thing that goes through my mind.
Maybe that implies I'm not WIS enough!
I think the idea was to have it tangled up in the movement. 'Experts' say that's a bad idea, but what do they know?
Wish I'd took the plunge on the JLC I was looking at from Chrononext yesterday it's gone up by £240 today!
I'm waiting on a limited basel release (currently has no UK rrp, only CHF)
And its looking £4-500 more than it was prior to the pounds freefall!
Just hoping the currency market stabilises over the next few months, not that I can do anything but take it on the chin and hope there's enough in the piggy bank.
Importing from the EU could (without a trade deal) in future mean paying UK VAT.
But at the moment you pay VAT anyway - in the seller's country. (That's why prices are lower for non-EU buyers.)
So the differences will be:
1. the UK government gets your tax, rather than a foreign government
2. the tax could differ a bit (German VAT is 5% higher than ours for example)
3. You may have a handling fee to pay.
4. In practice you might actually not have to pay anything!
The exchange rate is another matter, but that's right now and these import rule changes (if they occur) are ~2 years away.
By then you may be able to get a watch from a eurozone seller by bartering a few tins of baked beans or other non perishable food items.
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^^ A very naïve question. If buying from the US now, can you avoid the local equivalent of VAT, and pay the VAT on arrival (as you would anyway)?
Those VAT rules apply in the EU, never seen any discounted prices on US wen sites for foreign sales. We can hope for a trade deal of course...
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Depends what state you buy from and ship to.
I've used Ashford and if I shipped to NYC I would pay NYC sales tax so I shipped to Miami and didn't pay tax.
Same goes for some stores if you are out of state you don't pay the tax - bit hazy on details as I've not done it but I think Colorado or Arizona do that
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I need to do a little research in that case.
Erm...German VAT is 1% less than ours, at 19%.
If the stock market continues its current plunge I'll need to sell my watches to feed the family.
And then sell the family to feed myself.
Not sure what I'll do then - Eat NATO straps maybe?
Of course investments can go down as well as up, so we'll see...
M
eat your family and keep the watches and shares , simplesby avoiding the fee's charged by the middlemen you will remain flush if somewhat lonely
Ah yes, I got it the wrong way round.
But if you'll permit me a pedantic point, it is 5% lower.
On a 100 EUR purchase our VAT is 20 EUR and German VAT is 19 EUR. 19 is 5% less than 20.
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If you permit me a pedantic point, a 100 Euro purchase in the UK will contain 16.67 EUR VAT, while in Germany that amount is 15.97 EUR.
Retail prices always have to be quoted with tax included.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
On the plus side - if the EU was so good, why wouldnt the swiss have joined them ?
I'm guessing most of the luxury end of the watch market in Europe is still based in Switzerland.
The swiss are like the dwarves in lord of the rings.
They live in the mountains, they like shiny things, they are suspicious of outsiders, they are an inward looking bunch but nevertheless they are canny businessmen.
So even we are going to lose any trade agreement we currently have with the swiss I'm sure they will put something else in place so they can hoover up as many of our hobbit pounds as possible.
Good luck everybody. Have a good one.
What school did you go to?
Seriously (aside from the point made above that I should have stated the 100 EUR was ex-VAT in my example) what do you think is wrong?
20 × 0.95 = 19
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Iconic seem to be back online.
Looked at only a couple of models, but don't notice any price changes.....yet.
H
Apologies if you have speculated already . . . But what would you expect the increase to be?
Do you expect a 'realignment' to Swiss prices only or do you suspect there will be a greater increase as a result of the outcome of the referendum?
Realise this is 'crystal ball gazing'!!
Thanks,
Rob
If you are looking at this from an exchange rate perspective it depends where you start.
Taking Jan 2016 as the start point the Euro was at 1.35 and now is at 1.23 so you could look at 9-10% base on that.
However if you look at the Swiss Franc in Jan it was 1.45 and now is at 1.42 so a price increase could be hard to justify if the original product starts in CHF.
The second however comes when you look at other currencies for example:
A Rolex Exp 1 here is $ 6250 in the UK it is GBP 4300 (local taxes/VAT/sales tax included) so for the prices to be equal the $:GBP rate should be 1.45 but it is now at 1.37 creating a price differential.
So in answer to your question Rolex can argue it anyway they want and will do what ever they feel like but still need to sell product so may be a little cautious
Pure speculation, but there's little point bothering with a few percentage points. I would expect perhaps 5-10% but not before currencies have settled a little bit as they almost certainly will. We must remember how frequently Rolex will adjust prices when necessary, as they did between 2008 and 2012. I am no longer at my desk but am sure there were three changes in one year as the gold price and SFr moved quickly. This is balanced by currency / commodity movements in the other direction, which result in Rolex UK simply holding prices, as they have from June 2012 until today, waiting for inflation or circumstances to catch up.
I have today had a very busy Saturday with happy ADs on the telephone getting me to offer on / underwrite part-exchanges, and one commented that it is the best day he can remember. Everyone must be reading about price rises and dearer grey market watches on tz-uk !
H
Last edited by Haywood_Milton; 25th June 2016 at 16:12.
Yes, in mathematical terms, but no-one refers to percentages of percentages – VAT is a set percentage of the net price.
Excellent. At least the world didn't end when the count was done!!!
Another thought . . . If new prices increase by, say, 10%, what happens to used?
Example:- I have a BLNR with current list of £5,950. This increases to £6,500. Do used prices follow immediately or is there a delay?
Seems like only the manufacturer would benefit from the increase as they don't cost any more to manufacture etc. Etc.
Thanks again all,
Rob
Of course you can refer to percentages of percentages. Otherwise you use percentage points. As in 20% is 1 percentage point more than 19%.
Rightly or wrongly I've also "pulled the trigger" on a new Rolex at my local AD today. It did indeed seem very busy but couldn't tell you if unusually so. They also gave me the price hike routine which I took with a pinch of salt but I've done it anyway just in case. I know I've just posted the same thing in the Incoming thread so forgive me if this irks anyone but I thought it somewhat relevant to both threads.
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