Reply With QuoteRear view mirror investing can be dangerous. Good luck speculating.
Hi.
I have a bit of surplus cash at the moment and looking for a Rolex to keep long term as an investment, it will be worn on occasions but not as a daily.
If you were currently looking for one what would you recommend?
I am swaying towards an early/mid 80's Sea-Dweller 16660, complete with box & papers and in original condition.
Quite a tricky watch to find but they done become available from time to time from what I can see, I am in no rush so if it takes me 12 months to find one I dont mind.
Any other recommendations for future classics?
Thanks
Rear view mirror investing can be dangerous. Good luck speculating.
Buy the earlier 1665 - in the best condition and as complete as you can find, and I'd say it would be a better buy - the 16660 maybe a shorter production run but it's essentially a 16600 with a worse movement, unless you get a really nice Matte dial.
It's just a matter of time...
Matte dial is what I was going to aim for.
1665 would be ideal but I think it might go over what I had in mind, however I will definitely keep an eye out for one.
Thanks
its a slippery slope unless you are going to get enjoyment too, after all it only needs interest rates to rise and people to stop speculating. Also if you buy retail in the UK or even off the net, you are probably providing someone with a profit. Unless you are very lucky its probably safer to keep your cash. On the other hand you may get lucky who knows. Of course if you are going to wear and enjoy, the end result is less important. The original model year Anniversary Sub is probably a good bet if you can get one for a reasonable price ie not 16 grand
Full set 1665 with a decent dial is going to set you back £10k unless you get really lucky. If your budget is around £5k-£7k then anything matte dial is going to be about as good an investment as possible, however nothing is a sure thing. Personally I'd be looking for a really nice 5513 but that's just because I prefer a no date watch.
16610LV might be a good shout.
I will be wearing the watch as well, its not just going to be boxed and put in a drawer but it's something I will be keeping for years. Hopefully in 30 years time it will be worth a bit as there will be a complete set on a watch which could potentially be 50-60 years old. Although I sell a few watches there is some I will keep for ever and have had for years, this will be one of them.
I agree with Schofie, matt dial 5513s have been creeping up. I'd buy the best you can, with papers if possible, and you won't lose on it long term. They're very popular and I can see them matching SD prices in the not too distant future.
Sea-Dwellers are a bit more specialised, and anything matt dial would be the way to go if you have to have an SD.
Truth is, none of us can have any idea what a watch will sell for in 30 years. Extrapolating from the past isn't reliable, if it was there would be no risk in investment.
Im not 100% basing it on current pricing on vintage models now but at least we have a bit of an educated guess, generally the Sea-Dwellers and in fact most matte dial model seem to be steadily going up and up, I cant see in 10, 20, 30 years the price going down but who knows!?
As with any investment, buy low sell high
Only way for certain profit is to lowball I guess.
I think you have hit the nail on the head there, this a long term investment. As others have said buy the best Matt dial model you can from a reputable source and wear it and enjoy it and over the longer term it is difficult to see prices going anywhere other than up.Originally Posted by GC2012
Generally buying watches as an investment is not a good idea because of all the uncertainty.
Plus, hard to buy vintage from an AD:-)
I'd been thinking exactly the same thing over the past few months , bit of spare cash & a lot of on line window shopping .
Originally I'd been looking at sub 5513's & 1680/0's , but for me at least it was a minefield & didn't want my pants pulled down !
Eventually found an early 16600 (my budget was low 😀 ) complete set & it's due for delivery tomorrow . If I can enjoy it for 20 years & maybe make a few £££ when it comes to sell then happy days.
If it's worth £5 when it comes to sell , it's done better than some of my cars !
Today I would be buying a stainless steel Zenith Daytona to put away, or a Deepsea Blue. My vintage pick would be a Steve McQueen Explorer.
M
Last edited by milwatch126; 4th October 2016 at 05:44.
You might be as well off hoovering up Seiko Pogues, UFO's and Bull Heads. Available from £250 to £750. At that cost it's not crazy to speculate they could double (or not) in price over 5-10 years. Turn £5k into £10k or instead have exactly the same value but a lovely bunch of colourful dials!
Sorry whilst the 16660 is a good watch, there are too many around to be an investment.
I would advise against buying any Rolex as an investment as you would probably be better off reducing your mortgage or investing in the FTSE.
If you have too buy a Rolex, go for those in short supply.
The 16520 and 1655 spring to mind as they are in tight supply.
Any hand wound Daytona should also be a good risk but my overall advice is stay away.
Your main problem is - are you any good at buying low and how do you intend to sell high. Everyone expects a bargain from private sellers, so it is all stacked against you. At this moment in time, prices are on the high side because of a general across the board shortage due to Rolex holding back on supplying dealers and this affects the second hand market. So you are likely to buy high which is hardly sensible.
Regards
Mick
Last edited by Mick P; 3rd October 2016 at 18:40.
The problem with investing in watches as a long term investment is that the predicted market in 20-50 years is likely to be much smaller than it is today and therefore the demand will probably be much lower.
The market today is propped up by the "Baby boomers" who are now comparatively wealthy and buying the watches that they couldn't afford in their teens (sweeping generalisation I know) The BBs are buying the watches that their fathers admired. Problem is that the children and grandchildren of the baby boomers couldn't care less about watches (another sweeping generalisation) and are moving towards Smartphones, Smartwatches etc ........... and even Daniel Wellington and Michael Kors!
In short - I would not be so sure of there being a worthwhile market for mechanical watches in the future, outside of a much smaller community of enthusiasts than we have now. And with Rolex being something of a mass production manufacturer, as the volume of buyers decreases there is likely to be a huge oversupply of "vintage" watches.
By all means buy to enjoy the watch, but don't rely on a return in 20-30 years time.
As many have said don't buy as an investment, there are far better opps out there, but buying many models such as the Daytona both steel and ceramic, and the Sub LV, will mean you will at least not lose any money in the future.
I think there's a new generation of 'hipsters' that are going to create demand for quite a while.
It's cool to wear vintage and that's not going anywhere. Let's face it, automatic watches are completely unnecessary. However as technology advances I believe demand for old fashioned watches will increase.
Does anyone really think vintage Rolex is going to go down in the short to medium term?
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If you can stretch your budget, try a Patek. I've already 'made' 5k realiseable profit (original price compared to resale value) over <10years. But like any investment you would need to sell to realise the 'profit' and don't plan to sell the Patek.
Probably watches are not good investment vehicles. As said, you'd get better returns by reducing your debt (pay off the mortgage) or long term investment in a tracker fund with minimal frees, wrapped up in an ISA.
Martyn
Very Good advice, do not tell everyone. ;)
The auction prices are rocketing.
Take the 60s Sub that had an estimate of £50k, hammer fell at £160k, by the time fees were included you are at almost £200k.
The watch came with a 60s price list.
Bet that made the owners day.
39mm Omega Railmaster with full box and papers - modern cult classic going up in value-
If you can find one.
As long as interests rates stay this low, then collectible boy toys will increase in value, whether they are cars, watches, etc.
The nice thing about watches is that storage, maintenance and running costs are very low. Plus you can use them to tell the time.
My money would go into a nice 16750 (MATT) or a 16800 (MATT) or a 5513. Perhaps even a 16550 as they are quite good value at the moment.
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
Hands down a four liner 14060m, modern enough to be usable and just about rare enough plus it's the very last of the "traditional" Sub.
Watches of the kind you have in mind can only optimistically be described as investments. I'd buy something you can enjoy as much as you want. If it doesn't lose value over the course of ownership, that's already a good thing. Placing bets on buying a 1665 in one of the scarcer variants with a high exit premium in mind. is not a sensible thing to do IMHO.
As others have stated watches are not the best of investments..
That said I would look at an early (2003) 16610LV
On either a Y or F prefix
I bought mine in Dec 2003 for £2850 and would hazard it's worth a bit more now , especially as it's Unworn.
Dunno about Rolex but the Patek Philippe 5711/1P and 5976/1G might be good speculations (I won't call them investments as they generate no ongoing revenue).
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