Rolex 16710 and inflated prices: Bubble?

[mhurley]

I was after a steel GMT, and managed to find a black 16700 for £5k in May. I went to Rolex and got a Pepsi dial put on.
Watch came with original box, nothing else. The hour and minute hand had been relumed.
I reckon its worth at least £6k now

[Dave+63]

The thing is that Rolex have been bumping their sales prices up 5-10% twice a year, relentlessly, and the availability of SS Sports models is worse than it has ever been, so demand is even higher.

Rolex keep increasing the price of their modern models and this has a cascade effect of normalizing the new baseline price upwards.

I don’t know where you’re getting this idea from, Rolex have only raised their prices three times in the last six years.

They appear to me to be one of the most restrained watch companies when it comes to price rises.

Supply is the issue but I don’t believe Rolex are producing less, rather the demand is increasing due to the emerging markets. Let’s not girder either, that SS models are the least profitable watches in their range so moving production from their more profitable TT/PM models is not in their best interest.

[gaurav_tzuk]

I was after a steel GMT, and managed to find a black 16700 for £5k in May. I went to Rolex and got a Pepsi dial put on.
Watch came with original box, nothing else. The hour and minute hand had been relumed.
I reckon its worth at least £6k now

I wonder if Rolex sell the Pepsi ceramic bezel now for the latest gmt :/

[RJM25R]

If I was so sure of my purchases I would definitely buy more rather than wasting breath trying to persuade a skeptical.

I already own far more Rolex than I need, and I’m not interested in convincing a sceptic, just to educate. Spelling and grammar would be a good start.

[ponch10]

I already own far more Rolex than I need, and I’m not interested in convincing a sceptic, just to educate. Spelling and grammar would be a good start.

thanks, learned one new thing today

[RJM25R]

thanks, learned one new thing today

Good news.

[mangoosian]

I don’t know where you’re getting this idea from, Rolex have only raised their prices three times in the last six years.

They appear to me to be one of the most restrained watch companies when it comes to price rises.

Supply is the issue but I don’t believe Rolex are producing less, rather the demand is increasing due to the emerging markets. Let’s not girder either, that SS models are the least profitable watches in their range so moving production from their more profitable TT/PM models is not in their best interest.

2008 list price of Rolex GMT 116610LN £3600
2018 list price of Rolex GMT 116610LN £6450

79% increase over 10 years
6% compounded increase per year

6% is higher than any stated inflation over the period (if these can be trusted), so the increase is in real terms too.

Sources:
https://www.minus4plus6.com/images/U...08_Page_04.jpg

https://www.rateinflation.com/inflat...inflation-rate

https://m.rolex.com/watches/gmt-mast...10ln-0001.html

[Dave+63]

2008 list price of Rolex GMT 116610LN £3600
2018 list price of Rolex GMT 116610LN £6450

79% increase over 10 years
6% compounded increase per year

6% is higher than any stated inflation over the period (if these can be trusted), so the increase is in real terms too.

Sources:
https://www.minus4plus6.com/images/U...08_Page_04.jpg

https://www.rateinflation.com/inflat...inflation-rate

https://m.rolex.com/watches/gmt-mast...10ln-0001.html

Fair enough but that doesn’t take account of the devaluation of the £ against the Swiss franc. In October 2009 it was 0.6, today it’s 0.8.

Factor that in and the real price is £4850 which is only 27% increase over nine years so less than 3% compounded. I don’t think Rolex are being particularly greedy!

[mangoosian]

Fair enough but that doesn’t take account of the devaluation of the £ against the Swiss franc. In October 2009 it was 0.6, today it’s 0.8.

Factor that in and the real price is £4850 which is only 27% increase over nine years so less than 3% compounded. I don’t think Rolex are being particularly greedy!

I wish my income had increased by either 3% or 6% compounded over the last 10 years :-)

I was going to mention the weak pound, but 3% compound increase in a strong currency and 6% on a weaker one show how Rolex prices increase across the board.

I'm not saying Rolex are greedy. I think they know how to play and make the market they have created. And part of that is to periodically increase the price.

I have a non-WIS friend who bought an AD supplied Rolex a few years ago and one of his views was he stood to lose little, if anything from the purchase. This is a pervading factor in their success.

[Dave+63]

I wish my income had increased by either 3% or 6% compounded over the last 10 years :-)

I was going to mention the weak pound, but 3% compound increase in a strong currency and 6% on a weaker one show how Rolex prices increase across the board.

I'm not saying Rolex are greedy. I think they know how to play and make the market they have created. And part of that is to periodically increase the price.

I have a non-WIS friend who bought an AD supplied Rolex a few years ago and one of his views was he stood to lose little, if anything from the purchase. This is a pervading factor in their success.

I totally agree. At the end of the day they produce vastly overpriced jewellery. The irony being that this jewellery is also probably the cheapest way to own a watch long term.

Even a £1.99 petrol station quartz watch will cost you £1.99 which is far more than Rolex ownership is likely to cost.

[bedlam]

I totally agree. At the end of the day they produce vastly overpriced jewellery. The irony being that this jewellery is also probably the cheapest way to own a watch long term.

Even a £1.99 petrol station quartz watch will cost you £1.99 which is far more than Rolex ownership is likely to cost.

Only if you flip, rather than own and service over a life time.

Your post speaks to the mindset that is at the core of the pricing problem.

[Dave+63]

Only if you flip, rather than own and service over a life time.

Your post speaks to the mindset that is at the core of the pricing problem.

Not at all. The fact is that you can own one for a lifetime and it’ll be worth more at the end than when you bought it. That’s less likely if you flip one unless you’ve bought one of the most sought after models.

I’m merely highlighting why there’s good reason to pay a frankly ludicrous price for a stainless steel watch. It’s effectively a zero cost option.

“Your post speaks to the mindset that is at the core of the pricing problem.”

Please explain why you believe this, I’m not seeing it myself.

[744ER]

I see them asking for $10K for these now, with full set.

How is it possible that a watch model that has been made millions and millions costs that much in the preowned market? For some reason the prices suddenly started to rise... I have no idea why.

I could understand 16600 because it's at least 50 times rarer than a Sub 16610 but why 16710 GMT?

I have one and I'm not selling. And I like the watch but come on... this is not a rare watch.

PS: I asked that in my GMT review 1.5 years ago. Back then they were €6K.
My 16710 review with Belligero

There are definitely not close to even a million around. It was made for about 25 years and for most of that time quite unpopular. Some people who didn't have patience to wait for a sub bought a gmt and put a black insert on it just to get close to the look...

I have a 2007 stick dial, which will be with me until i draw my oars in. I hope it doesn't increase more in value as it just gets more desirable for someone to rob me of it.

[MartynJC (UK)]

Can someone work out if a Rolex Air-King-Date purchased for £250.00 in 1978 makes a good ‘investment’? I remember doing NAV etc back in the day but I’m a bit rusty. The new air-king is about £4,750. It might be worth checking the price paid against the average working wages? I can’t work out the maths.

[Boots2]

Can someone work out if a Rolex Air-King-Date purchased for £250.00 in 1978 makes a good ‘investment’? I remember doing NAV etc back in the day but I’m a bit rusty. The new air-king is about £4,750. It might be worth checking the price paid against the average working wages? I can’t work out the maths.

I'm no expert, so please feel free to ignore this. RPI index in 1978 was 45.9, in October this year it was 284.5. So £250 in 1978 would be the equivalent to £1,550 today.

[ViperStripes]

Bank of England has the answer for you:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/mone...ion-calculator

£250 in 1978 is £1360 (2017).

[Dave+63]

I have a 2007 stick dial, which will be with me until i draw my oars in. I hope it doesn't increase more in value as it just gets more desirable for someone to rob me of it.

It’d take a seriously clued up mugger with amazing eyesight to single you out for the stick dial; most men of a certain age couldn’t even see it without a loupe!

I get your point though, even with a run of the mill 16710 (or any SS sports Rolex) the increasing value is a double edged sword and you start to think about whether it’s worth the risk of wearing it where you’re going.

[gaurav_tzuk]

Bank of England has the answer for you:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/mone...ion-calculator

£250 in 1978 is £1360 (2017).

So an amazing investment

If we take a 10% return on the stock market with dividends reinvested annually it is approximately 4400

[Boots2]

If we take a 10% return on the stock market with dividends reinvested annually it is approximately 4400

Perhaps my calculator needs new batteries, but I make 40 years of 10% annual return compounded on a principal of £250 a total of £11,314.81.

[thegreatdogwood]

Perhaps my calculator needs new batteries, but I make 40 years of 10% annual return compounded on a principal of £250 a total of £11,314.81.

Indeed it is

[Rich]

Perhaps my calculator needs new batteries, but I make 40 years of 10% annual return compounded on a principal of £250 a total of £11,314.81.

so that would make investing in a Rolex Air King 40yrs ago no better than investing in average S&S? This is also not taking into account any servicing costs and potential insurance costs or for that matter any dividends that might bump this up. The only benefit of course would be to wear it...

did I get that right?

[gaurav_tzuk]

Perhaps my calculator needs new batteries, but I make 40 years of 10% annual return compounded on a principal of £250 a total of £11,314.81.

Oops no idea why I was using 30 year period instead of 40.....that figure is spot on.

[hypeunot]

Obviously, now is the best timing to avoid Rolex, try some other brands.

Now may also be a good time to offload.

The resale price of my 14060M was around that of the IWC 3227 ten years ago.
I sold the 14060M in the middle of the year and used the proceeds to purchase a IWC 3227 and a IWC 3228.

[Evangelos]

Now may also be a good time to offload.

The resale price of my 14060M was around that of the IWC 3227 ten years ago.
I sold the 14060M in the middle of the year and used the proceeds to purchase a IWC 3227 and a IWC 3228.

It happens to own both 14060m and 322801, ignoring the mechanical part that am absolutely an ignorant, the second is clearly a better looking watch.

Sent from my MI 5X using Tapatalk

[murkeywaters]

so that would make investing in a Rolex Air King 40yrs ago no better than investing in average S&S? This is also not taking into account any servicing costs and potential insurance costs or for that matter any dividends that might bump this up. The only benefit of course would be to wear it...

did I get that right?

Be interesting to see the figures based on say a 1675 GMT or a 1680 Sub from 1978..

[hypeunot]

It happens to own both 14060m and 322801, ignoring the mechanical part that am absolutely an ignorant, the second is clearly a better looking watch.

Sent from my MI 5X using Tapatalk

I agree that the 3228 is a better looking watch than the 14060M
It may sound far fetched that I have not worn the 14060M.
I am not keen on the Sub or the GMT and, bought the 14060M only because the price was right and it has no cyclops.
It was a good purchase on hind-sight.

Movement wise, I would say that the Rolex is better.
Both the 3227 and 3228 have the same base movement.
Both stopped running 3 days after being fully wound and worn at least 12 hours a day.
I do not have this issue with any of my Rolex. And it's only recently that I have those that are more than 10 years old cleaned and oiled, and not by Rolex.

The 3227 has just been serviced by Richemont.
I'm monitoring if the issue is resolved before having the 3228 serviced.

[Evangelos]

Ignore please

[Evangelos]

I agree that the 3228 is a better looking watch than the 14060M
It may sound far fetched that I have not worn the 14060M.
I am not keen on the Sub or the GMT and, bought the 14060M only because the price was right and it has no cyclops.
It was a good purchase on hind-sight.

Movement wise, I would say that the Rolex is better.
Both the 3227 and 3228 have the same base movement.
Both stopped running 3 days after being fully wound and worn at least 12 hours a day.
I do not have this issue with any of my Rolex. And it's only recently that I have those that are more than 10 years old cleaned and oiled, and not by Rolex.

The 3227 has just been serviced by Richemont.
I'm monitoring if the issue is resolved before having the 3228 serviced.

Ohh for my information, how much time and what the cost was for the iwc service? Was there any major issue? I often wear mine but haven't yet observed anything alarming.


Sent from my MI 5X using Tapatalk

[hypeunot]

Ohh for my information, how much time and what the cost was for the iwc service? Was there any major issue? I often wear mine but haven't yet observed anything alarming.


Sent from my MI 5X using Tapatalk

I am in Singapore and service cost was Sgd 1100.
Service duration was 2 weeks. Point to note that Singapore is such a small city/country that there is little transportation time between the IWC boutique and the service centre.
I pressed the service centre for details of the service done and all it would say that the barrel was replaced.

[P ELLIS]

There are definitely not close to even a million around. It was made for about 25 years and for most of that time quite unpopular. Some people who didn't have patience to wait for a sub bought a gmt and put a black insert on it just to get close to the look...

I have a 2007 stick dial, which will be with me until i draw my oars in. I hope it doesn't increase more in value as it just gets more desirable for someone to rob me of it.

When I bough mine in 2003 ish the GMT was not as popular as the sub and slightly cheaper and I couldn’t afford the sub which was the sought after one , how things have changed . Still wear mine and it’s pretty mint and the full set and I paid £2250 iirc

[OHG1X]

Is it me or have prices of these moved up again since Xmas ?!


Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app

[shoppy]

They seem to have, I was offered £5000 last Jan for either of mine, this year been offered £7000. Same greay dealer, it is interesting.

[Geneve]

Is it me or have prices of these moved up again since Xmas ?!

Yes, I've noticed the market has definitely strengthened for these (and 40mm Explorers), in recent months.

I think, in the context of Rolex popularity, there are various reasonings for this:

- It is a practical, classic, design with interesting background history

- The launch of the retro-model at Basel 2018, and the subsequent demand, will have generated a lot more interest

- It has a distinctive appearance on the wrist - perhaps more so than the increasingly ubiquitous Subs and SDs -and the 'look' can be changed with different bezels or bracelets

- There are a lot of buyers who do not want to jump on the 'bandwagon' of waiting lists and premium prices for the latest 'must have' models, and would rather invest in a 'vintage' 4 or 5-digit model that is no longer in production

- Certain earlier GMT models have extra rarity boosting values further

Whether this is a 'bubble' or the market adjusting to the long-term desirability of certain watches is anyone's guess.

[speedypro1111]

GMT is the one watch that Rolex makes that you can change the look of for very little outlay
So in that respect it’s unique and very versatile I actually think prices will climb more for the older Gmt’s
The Milgauss GV as I’m led to believe was selling for upto around 14k? In the used market in around 2008 due to availability problems
Personally I’d never pay more than RRP for the new hottest watch as per the Milgauss above but seen as though it’s now available for 2k under RRP on the used market ,I think it’s now a bargain and one to buy

[Pitch3110]

I purchased my T<25 16710 Pep here four years ago as for me it was just the most elegant tool watch out there with real history and purpose to boot. And this was from someone who did not like the brand image one bit.

It remains today my most looked at and enjoyed watch and as for the prices, it is just madness where they have gone. I can’t see any evidence as to where the prices have upped over the past month though.

Pitch

[Chalet]

Paid £4850 from a dealer in 2016 for this 2002 version. Had all the box and papers and a couple of Rolex services.

A very wearable classic.

[Billy4389]

Paid £4850 from a dealer in 2016 for this 2002 version. Had all the box and papers and a couple of Rolex services.

A very wearable classic.

Good buy ! My favourite Rolex can change the entire look witching a minute ! Pepsi the winner for me imo !


Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app

[Chalet]

It was originally a Coke based on the box stickers. Will take it to RSC to try it on that bezel. Keeping it on this until I pick up my ceramic Pepsi.