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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

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  1. #1
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Aye, I will sleep better tonight.

    I’ve been a long term investor and have done well out of it, part of me feels foolish for jumping and part of me feels foolish for not jumping sooner. However, over the years my decisions have fared well on average so what ever the market brings I won’t have any regrets.

    I just wish this whole mess would go away as it’s also affecting some property deals and my business.

    It’s hurting but I’m thankful I can take a bit of pain, I really feel for the many poor people who’s jobs and business will be serverly effected.
    Almost impossible to see how it won't get worse before it gets better...Capital economics just predicted the UK could see gdp drop between 10 to 20 percent next quarter, so lets go with mid range 15 percent for the moment cf to 2008 'only' 6 percent...that's real lasting pain, no quick return to normality.
    Last edited by Passenger; 17th March 2020 at 13:11.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Almost impossible to see how it won't get worse before it gets better...Capital economics just predicted the UK could see gdp drop between 10 to 20 percent next quarter, so lets go with mid range 15 percent for the moment cf to 2008 'only' 6 percent...that's real pain.
    It’s those sorts of indicators that pushed me over the edge.

    I’m certain we will see some extreme monetary policy put in place to fix this which I expect will see more money printed and pressure on the banks to prop up good businesses with cash flow issues.

    Now I’m in cash I’m worried about inflation.

    Governments and Central banks will have a lot to do to fix this and with interest rates as they are I’m wondering what they have left up their sleeves, will be see helicopter money?

  3. #3
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    It’s those sorts of indicators that pushed me over the edge.

    I’m certain we will see some extreme monetary policy put in place to fix this which I expect will see more money printed and pressure on the banks to prop up good businesses with cash flow issues.

    Now I’m in cash I’m worried about inflation.

    Governments and Central banks will have a lot to do to fix this and with interest rates as they are I’m wondering what they have left up their sleeves, will be see helicopter money?
    Indeed zirp already nowhere to go and then there's that other systemic shock for the UK/EU lurking at years end.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Now I’m in cash I’m worried about inflation.
    Gold will then be your friend.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Gold will then be your friend.
    Will it? Price currently dropping.

  6. #6
    Master tiny73's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Will it? Price currently dropping.
    The price of paper gold is dropping. Take a look at the price and availability of physical gold.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiny73 View Post
    The price of paper gold is dropping. Take a look at the price and availability of physical gold.
    Nope, it's the price of physical which is dropping (actually not today, but over the past week).

    This is the chart of the daily Zurich physical gold price:


    Last edited by Raffe; 17th March 2020 at 17:57.

  8. #8
    Master tiny73's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Nope, it's the price of physical which is dropping (actually not today, but over the past week).

    This is the chart of the daily Zurich physical gold price:


    Fair enough but have you seen the £80+ per oz premium over spot on the likes of coininvest? That premium was only around £15 when I was buying at £800 or so per oz.

    Availability is also pretty scarce on the smaller bars.

  9. #9
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    It’s those sorts of indicators that pushed me over the edge.

    I’m certain we will see some extreme monetary policy put in place to fix this which I expect will see more money printed and pressure on the banks to prop up good businesses with cash flow issues.

    Now I’m in cash I’m worried about inflation.

    Governments and Central banks will have a lot to do to fix this and with interest rates as they are I’m wondering what they have left up their sleeves, will be see helicopter money?
    Why would you worry about inflation when we are moving into a global recession?

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Why would you worry about inflation when we are moving into a global recession?
    I think inflation after the recession is quite likely given the amount of money printing thats going to happen over the next 12-18 months.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by klunk View Post
    I think inflation after the recession is quite likely given the amount of money printing thats going to happen over the next 12-18 months.
    That would seem likely but we have had QE for years and inflation has remarkably been low but official figures lag reality.

    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Why would you worry about inflation when we are moving into a global recession?
    Because inflation is the enemy of cash
    Last edited by Montello; 17th March 2020 at 18:32.

  12. #12
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    That would seem likely but we have had QE for years and inflation has remarkably been low but official figures lag reality.
    You referring to the Rolex inflation?

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    You referring to the Rolex inflation?
    Oh no ... bubble could be coming to an end.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by klunk View Post
    I think inflation after the recession is quite likely given the amount of money printing thats going to happen over the next 12-18 months.
    In isolation maybe, but when numerous economies are also indulging in QE, then it's a slightly different scenario.
    It's just a matter of time...

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