Can watches ever be an investment?

[Bassplayer]

Let's say, for argument's sake, you already had a few nice watches but you also had £20k to £30k looking to be invested for a minimum period of 15 years. Would a watch which costs all (or a portion) of that amount and which was "safe queened" and worn very rarely ever be considered a viable investment?

Outside of a Patek, I have my doubts.

[mattmillard]

I suppose that each persons idea of what is viable is different. If you say bought a decent discontinued Rolex Sub for example (LV, 5513, 1680 ....) then you could probably expect a modest return and have the enjoyment of wearing it. If it just sat in the safe though, a modest return can probably be bettered; Stock Markets, Commercial Property etc, etc. Some people may also get pride of ownership by holding a watch in the safe but not wearing so again, for some this will make modest gains acceptable.

[simoscribbler]

Impossible to know obviously, but I wouldn't think so. That 20kish could go into an ISA over a couple if years, and be split up for a bit of diversification. The below would even produce a bit of income for reinvestment - whereas I guess the watch would need a fair bit spending on it, maybe 2 services at a grand a time?

I'd go 25% physical gold etf, 25% emerging market income etf, 25% emerging market government debt etf and 25% in a UK REIT. Just a bit of fun - I'm just a private investor.

I'll make a note to check back in 15 years....

[Jeff Stein]

I believe that watches have been, and will continue to be good investments. For me, it's the vintage chronographs, especially the Heuers.

Best choices are subject to debate and it will be difficult to repeat the huge run-up of the last decade.

One point on which there can be no debate: in order to be an "investment", you must have a strategy and method of selling them. Otherwise they are only "appreciated" assets, in the full sense of the word "appreciated".

Jeff

[toohuge]

My wife and I say this when purchasing jewelry, we always tell ourselves that this is an investment etc etc The problem we have is that we never sell anything :D

As mentioned above, the Rolex sport models are good and pretty much anything with Patek on the front seems to do well. The trick is to buy well ;)

Chris

[sportswatch]

I think it is a decent investment once you have factored in the enjoyment value providing you have bought well, mine have certainly increased in value but if i put the same money in property over the time span i would definatly have made more.

[lencoth]

The trick is to buy well ;)

The trick is to know this upfront

[scarto]

If you choose your models well and pay well under retail price, or minty used examples ...I really don't see any reason why not. 10,20k 'invested' now in a variety of watches and held for say 20 years - I reckon you could do pretty well - certainly better than our current savings rates.
Plus you get to enjoy wearing them in the meantime..what other hobby does that?!

<cue people saying "watches are for wearing , not investment">

[miguelh34]

With the massive inflation in prices over the last ten years i reckon it would make a ok investment of courses depends on make and model

[Foxy100]

It's a shame Arno Haslinger isn't on this forum...

Nic (Heuerboy) is or was selling a PVD Monaco, what do you think Jeff, is that going to continue appreciating?

[jwg663]

Invest £20k in (say) a Patek for fifteen years.

Two services in year seven & year fifteen at (say) £1.5k (conservatively estimated 2019 price) & £2.2k (estimated 2027 price).

Insurance for watch over fifteen years at (again say) £150 to £200 (average £175) is £2625.

A couple of valuations for insurance over the years, that'll be £300 say.

So that's £1.5k + £2.2k + £2.6k + £300 = £6.6k. Will the watch sell for £27k plus in 2027? Who knows. It's gamble.

Does that outperform easily obtainable rates on the High St.?

[Andy Schuhren]

Well looking at recent history if you had put $200 in a Rolex sub in 1970 then you would be looking to sell that now for over $5000 that to me would be a good investment ( not taking into account what $200 was actually worth then). But who know what will be the next red sub or big pilot or what ever. I would say that it would hold its value I you bought one I the big older brands

[Chris_in_the_UK]

Long slow burn - fickle to boot as well.

The vintage Rolex market had an MI a couple of years ago and the heady incessant price rises got a bit of a defib.

If you are savvy and happy to sit on something for years then you will not loose money if the choice is made wisely - as for large short term profits, forget it.

[PhiloStan]

Like most people, Rolex and Patek are good investments and you get the enjoyment of wearing them. I actually think the top German brands (A. Lange & Soehne, GO) would work too assuming you buy pre-owned.

But why not buy diamonds instead?

[100thmonkey]

I wouldnt stick them in a safe, I would wear them and then at least if you do sell them you have made on the investment as you have made yourself happy wearing it!

- - - Updated - - -

I wouldnt stick them in a safe, I would wear them and then at least if you do sell them you have made on the investment as you have made yourself happy wearing it!

[Jeff Stein]

Nic (Heuerboy) is or was selling a PVD Monaco, what do you think Jeff, is that going to continue appreciating?

I believe that Nic was successful in his sale of his black PVD Monaco.

I have no idea what Nic paid for this watch, but five years ago they were in the range between $3,000 (for a beater) and $7,000 (for a really nice one). That range has now moved to $20,000 for the beater to $40,000 / $50,000 for the best ones. So yes, these were nice investments, if you bought and sold.

I would not be loading up on the black PVD Monacos now, to try to catch the next leg of the advance, but I expect that there are other vintage Heuers still at reasonable prices and should appreciate.

[Foxy100]

The vintage Rolex market had an MI a couple of years ago and the heady incessant price rises got a bit of a defib.

Eh?

Blah blah blah 10 characters

[Foxy100]

I believe that Nic was successful in his sale of his black PVD Monaco.

I have no idea what Nic paid for this watch, but five years ago they were in the range between $3,000 (for a beater) and $7,000 (for a really nice one). That range has now moved to $20,000 for the beater to $40,000 / $50,000 for the best ones.

Sigh. Five years ago I bought a Rolex for £3,600...

[Chris_in_the_UK]

Eh?

Blah blah blah 10 characters

What?

To clarify - summer 2010 saw an almost month on month rise for some of the vintage Rolex market - if anybody was a member of VRF they will have seen this on the market place. Towards the late summer/early winter this stalled and prices started to fall compared to the earlier (crazy) rises.

(If you did not understand my original post I was saying that the market had a heart attack and the settling of prices was the financial decline/common sense resuscitating it a little).

Keep up man.....

[Jeff Stein]

Sigh. Five years ago I bought a Rolex for £3,600...

well, it could have been a lot worse . . . equity securities, real estate, etc., etc.

[Foxy100]

What?

To clarify - summer 2010 saw an almost month on month rise for some of the vintage Rolex market - if anybody was a member of VRF they will have seen this on the market place. Towards the late summer/early winter this stalled and prices started to fall compared to the earlier (crazy) rises.

(If you did not understand my original post I was saying that the market had a heart attack and the settling of prices was the financial decline/common sense resuscitating it a little).

Keep up man.....

Sorry, fell foul of the minimum 10 character law.

[Manxdiver]

Let's say, for argument's sake, you already had a few nice watches but you also had £20k to £30k looking to be invested for a minimum period of 15 years. Would a watch which costs all (or a portion) of that amount and which was "safe queened" and worn very rarely ever be considered a viable investment?

Outside of a Patek, I have my doubts.

If you speak to a trader, they'll tell you a long term hold is a short term position gone wrong.

[Foxy100]

well, it could have been a lot worse . . . equity securities, real estate, etc., etc.

I really don't like the PVD Monaco so I'd never have bought it anyway! Your three-dial manual Autavia "Villeneuve" on the other hand...

Incidentally I have a NOS MH bezel waiting patiently for one of those, if you ever see another for sale!

[Chinnock]

Better than money in the bank if you choose wisely with added benefit of ownership enjoyment.

[Harry Tuttle]

I don't know for sure but it strikes me that if you like the watch and it perks up a little over the years in terms of the asking price, then that's a bit of a bonus. But to bet your life savings on a very expensive watch would put an awful lot of strain on your relationship with the watch concerned; and I'll be that you won't be seeing a lot of it over the twenty or so years that you're going to have to wait for it to improve in price. On the other hand I harbour a secret little fantasy that one of my small collection of watches is going to be so sought after in fifteen years time that I will be revealed to my peers as a far-sighted steely-eyed investor. Not holding my breath though.

When I first started to frequent watch forums I can remember reading a story about someone who came across old milsubs threaded onto a wire coat hanger and sold for pounds when they were replaced by cheaper quarzt watches. Now buying that would definitely have been an investment.

[RS24]

Better than money in the bank if you choose wisely with added benefit of ownership enjoyment.

I would second this, buy and enjoy wearing, and lets face it if you buy a Rolex 1680 today for say £4k and wear it for a year and then put it up for £4200 a year later and are in no rush to sell, you will have made an easy 5% over the year, way better than your average high street saving rate and you had a great watch on your wrist for 12 months! :)

Then pocket the £200, and buy another nice watch for around the £4k mark!

[JohnF]

Given that watches don't generate a cash flow, they are lousy investments. They might be a speculative purchase, acquired in anticipation of significant value appreciation.

[jonny]

Given that watches don't generate a cash flow, they are lousy investments. They might be a speculative purchase, acquired in anticipation of significant value appreciation.

exactly 10k of Vodafone shares will yield you £500 a year + long term capital growth. A watch wouldnt make you a dividend/rent .On the other hand a watch bought wel is a place to park your money ie a Rolex sub ceramic bought for 4.5k should get you back your money if you had to sell it.

[walkerwek1958]

Come on then someone; whats the typical roi over say 10 years for watches as an asset class? I suspect they´re "investments" for the benefit iof wives and girlfriends chiefly.

I´ll stick to property instead thanks.

Looking at the economic situation, property is an extremely questionable investment. It's traditionally done well, but that's in the past.

As for watches, I doubt we'll see a repeat of the last 8-10years but i think they'll keep rising slowly in value.........more than I`d predict for property.

My watch collection's done OK over the past 10 years, but so has my house. However, I know which would be easier to sell at the moment.

Paul

[walkerwek1958]

Given that watches don't generate a cash flow, they are lousy investments. They might be a speculative purchase, acquired in anticipation of significant value appreciation.

This implies that an investment has to generate cash flow to be worthy?....don`t get this at all!

Paul

[Dave O'Sullivan]

I don't know about going up in value but I'm happy that my collection is probably worth around what I paid for it :)
I rekon those white gold, blue bezel subs are the ones that will go up in value once they are discontinued.

[studs]

...but with a large pinch of what he said...

Long slow burn - fickle to boot as well.

The vintage Rolex market had an MI a couple of years ago and the heady incessant price rises got a bit of a defib.

If you are savvy and happy to sit on something for years then you will not loose money if the choice is made wisely - as for large short term profits, forget it.

[farmkid]

I know someone who was making good money throughout the 1980's.....and throughout that decade he purchased 17 Rolex's-all of
which he hid away in a cupboard and never wore. During the last 12 months he's sold them all and made an absolute killing...and paid for
a large extension on the back of his house.

Watches can definitely be a great investment- but as has already been mentioned-short term forget it.

[Ray]

Yes, if it's a Rolex sport model purchased pre-owned. Otherwise, accept the depreciation and enjoy wearing your watches.

[Neil.C]

Lots of optimistic slants and now the pessimistic version.

I've been collecting for the last 30 years and so I have made some quite frankly huge paper/sales profits with the mechanical resurgence.

However the premise was to buy stuff now that will be a good investment in fifteen years.

As far as I can see the market is shrinking. After all it is mainly old farts who are interested in watches and horology.

The main buyers for expensive watches in fifteen years time will be the kids who are around fifteen years old or so now. IMO they will stay happy to use their hand held devices (or whatever the future holds) for telling the time and won't show much interest in the ancient world of horology.

Less buyers will lead to falls in value IMO.

Our precious watches may possibly be like wind up gramophones were to our generation.

Hideously expensive to buy new and later worth nothing.

[ralf]

Who was the Photographer of that one Jeff?
Kind regards,
Ralf

[swanbourne]

Paul Newman Cosmograph
Rolex Milsub
Pre-Vendome Panerai

All readily available when they were current and all making fortunes now but who had the foresight to buy dozens of them at the time? What we need is a time machine.

Eddie

[Barryboy]

Lots of optimistic slants and now the pessimistic version.

I've been collecting for the last 30 years and so I have made some quite frankly huge paper/sales profits with the mechanical resurgence.

However the premise was to buy stuff now that will be a good investment in fifteen years.

As far as I can see the market is shrinking. After all it is mainly old farts who are interested in watches and horology.

The main buyers for expensive watches in fifteen years time will be the kids who are around fifteen years old or so now. IMO they will stay happy to use their hand held devices (or whatever the future holds) for telling the time and won't show much interest in the ancient world of horology.

Less buyers will lead to falls in value IMO.

Our precious watches may possibly be like wind up gramophones were to our generation.

Hideously expensive to buy new and later worth nothing.

I've never been inclined to add "+1" to a post so suffice to say that I totally agree with Neil. My own inclination (if I had the required £20 - £30K) would be to go for the most solid investment - as much as possible in a tax free cash ISA, and the rest in a savings plan that pays the best interest, with the option of using that capital to top up the tax free cash ISA every year. That's the rock solid safe option that should net you 2 -3% tax free every year.

If I were to look at a risky investment strategy I would consider using some of the cash to buy works of art - very risky I know but huge gains are possible.

Rob

[maple223]

If the purpose of your investment was just for capital appreciation in 15-20 years time, then maybe it can be considered. This is similar to buying physical gold. However, something giving yearly dividends/interest which can be reinvested is generally a better option for an investment.

Problem with either gold or watches is that unless it is sold, it is just paper gains. Nothing incoming from your investments until you actually sell it.

[rfrazier]

I suspect that George Daniels horological collection sold for more at auction than he paid to acquire it, even counting his work on them. I also suspect that, if he thought about it before he died, he could be confident that it would. That sounds like it could be an investment, perhaps to fund something after his death.

Best wishes,
Bob

[walkerwek1958]

It's hard to disagree with the logic in Neil C's post.....who's going to be buying old mechanical watches in 15yrs time? Current fashions are moving away from watches; I`m amazed by how many youngsters don`t wear one because they rely on the mobile phone.....which never leaves their side. Hard to imagine a time when few people wear watches but it's starting to happen.

And who's going to service/repair watches in 15years? Repairers are few and far between now, compared to 10years ago. Many who are still at it are getting old (70+), it is quite literally a dying art and given the cost/difficulty of getting into it I can`t see many younger people being tempted to take it up.

However, logic rarely comes into play where fashion and collectibles are concerned, but one thing's for sure: most of the next generation won`t have the spare cash to spend on frivolities and this will affect the market too.

Paul

[jonny]

It's hard to disagree with the logic in Neil C's post.....who's going to be buying old mechanical watches in 15yrs time? Current fashions are moving away from watches; I`m amazed by how many youngsters don`t wear one because they rely on the mobile phone.....which never leaves their side. Hard to imagine a time when few people wear watches but it's starting to happen.

And who's going to service/repair watches in 15years? Repairers are few and far between now, compared to 10years ago. Many who are still at it are getting old (70+), it is quite literally a dying art and given the cost/difficulty of getting into it I can`t see many younger people being tempted to take it up.

However, logic rarely comes into play where fashion and collectibles are concerned, but one thing's for sure: most of the next generation won`t have the spare cash to spend on frivolities and this will affect the market too.

Paul

I read an article in the FT , how fountain pens are booming and have been increasing steadily through the years which some might find surprising given that mail circulation is falling/emails and people preferring ipads etc So I doubt watches will fade..

[Geoff W]

A lot of this assumes that 'traditional' investments won't out-perform in the time frame that's been stated. Given current interest rates have only one way to go and that 15 years is a seriously long-term investment I'd probably stick with a decent Rolex or similar and wear it and put the rest in some ETFs and various savings accounts.

But then given that no one knows what's going to happen in the future you may as well do whatever you'll get the most enjoyment out of, and personally, I couldn't buy a watch and just stick it in a safe for 15 years.

[gunner]

Can you make money buying and selling watches? Absolutely.

Are they a solid investment? No.

You're really taking a punt on a particular model's popularity. Trying to convince yourself otherwise is denial. Prices for new watches will probably go up but that's largely just inflation. Second hand watches tend to be dragged along but that's hardly a strong investment thesis.

[gunner]

...and a quick comment on property - income is pretty attractive at the moment, something you won't get from a watch...

[RS24]

This implies that an investment has to generate cash flow to be worthy?....don`t get this at all!

Paul

Yep would have to second this... gold is most definitely an investment and does not generate cashflow!

[RS24]

I've never been inclined to add "+1" to a post so suffice to say that I totally agree with Neil. My own inclination (if I had the required £20 - £30K) would be to go for the most solid investment - as much as possible in a tax free cash ISA, and the rest in a savings plan that pays the best interest, with the option of using that capital to top up the tax free cash ISA every year. That's the rock solid safe option that should net you 2 -3% tax free every year.

If I were to look at a risky investment strategy I would consider using some of the cash to buy works of art - very risky I know but huge gains are possible.

Rob

Watches will always be worn, and as long as Rolex is in business there will always be people trained to repair them (even if they are employed by Rolex). And furthermore, even though I do not see watches this way, many see them as status symbols and so will want a Rolex, AP, JLC etc on their wrist to advertise the fact they have been successful and can afford one. I also think future generations will appreciate the mechanical nature of watches, and I know many younger people who like automatic watches and a fair few who favour vintage ones. Furthermore for most guys, watches are the only form of male jewellery most guys wear, and make a statement about who you are and your style/interests; not necessarily on a status front necessarily but on a bright green I'm whacky, or huge bezel/depth rating I'm a diver kind of way.

Also with inflation the way it is 2-3% is not an attractive return and a UK savings account is not a great place to have your cash.... rock solid, last forever companies with strong assets are a good place to put your money, in some cases annual dividends in excess of 5% and long term capital value growth that will outstrip inflation and so protect the underlying real value of your holdings against erosion (unlike a UK savings account...)

[jonny]

Yep would have to second this... gold is most definitely an investment and does not generate cashflow!

In my opinion thats speculation, not an investment. A savings account is an avigs account. An investment is something thats gives you an income shares/bonds/property.

[jonny]

Looking at the economic situation, property is an extremely questionable investment. It's traditionally done well, but that's in the past.

As for watches, I doubt we'll see a repeat of the last 8-10years but i think they'll keep rising slowly in value.........more than I`d predict for property.

My watch collection's done OK over the past 10 years, but so has my house. However, I know which would be easier to sell at the moment.

Paul

I would say the key fundamental in property is the income/yield , how much money it brings in every year , large capital gains are only wanted over the long term .Your watches dont make you any income in fact they are a liability insurance and servicing .

So the fact that some of you here think a watch that doesn't yield any income ,and has liabilities servicing and insurance isa better investment than something that produces an income is well weird.

Watches have been on a boom for the past decade hwoever every watch nowadays is massly produced and widely available i doubt there will be much growth on watches .

Also watches do not have to keep up with inflation where as on property shares they tend to do.

[RS24]

In my opinion thats speculation, not an investment. A savings account is an avigs account. An investment is something thats gives you an income shares/bonds/property.

I own shares that produce no income/dividends, are they not an investment?

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/investment?s=t