Originally Posted by
mrpgkennedy
ahhhhh i've read that one before
first let me start with a story from a security specialist i sat next to on a long flight to singapore once. We got talking about airport security and how much of a pain it was especially when changing flights, he made the point that it wasn't worth it. I was somewhat surprised by this and surely trying to stop suicide bombers blowing up planes was a good thing. he pointed out that the cost of providing the security combined with the total loss of productivity of the extra hour of work of everyone who now had to arrive early at the airport was with more then two 747s per day. He suggested we could give up and as long as the terrorists only blew up one plane a day on average, we'd be better off. It gives the lovely mental picture of the prime minister announcing with great loss that 350 people had died in another suicide bomb attack, but on the plus side 2000 people had been born today in the uk, your success hasn't even dented our population growth, good luck tomorrow but you'll run out of suicide bombers before we run out of people to put on the planes.
Now of coarse this is stupid, because although right on a population point of view, on an individual point of view it makes no sense, as an individual I want to know the flight is safe.
The same applies to cycle helmets, although that paper suggests less people will cycle if forced to wear helmets and the reduction of cycling will cause more years to be lost due to the reduction of exercise of these people who will get more heart disease, but once again this is looking at populations rather then individuals, i doubt many wives are comforted to be told, yes but by having the choice not to wear a helmet he's prevented more years of life being lost in people who wouldn't have cycled
Before we move onto the flawed assumptions of the paper, brutally not all years of our life are worth the same. The NHS has just spent a fortune improving trauma services, why? because trauma affects the youngest, most productive, most promising members of society, also the morbidity of those that survive it means that living with the injuries costs more then if the same event was to happen 40 years later. Trauma takes out the most valuable members of society when it comes to health economics. It costs the state much more for one 30 year old to die 40 years early then 20 65 year olds to die 5 years early. If you really wanted to be brutal you'd make it compulsory for net tax payers, optional for everyone else, and illegal for the retired. ( i'm really not suggesting this)
The paper is from 1992 ( the original figures they use)
1) Cycling has taken off massively in the last 20 years, i was back in london last month and was amazed how many people cycle now ( which is think is great) will the drop off be so great if people have to wear a helmet, most seem to anyway
2) It assumes that the cycling is the only exercise people do, and those that stop will just do nothing, they will refuse to exercise if they can't cycle without a helmet, which seems a little simplistic and unlikely
3) It assumes everyone with the cycling is now just the right amount of exercise,it doesn't take into account some people by cycling may be doing too much, hence a reduction may actually make them live longer, some people may be cycling such short distances that them stopping makes no impact
4) Some of them will walk rather then cycle which is another great form of exercise
5) It looks at years of life and not morbidity ( i.e. the non fatal consequences of heart disease and trauma)
6) Heart disease prevention and treatment has changed massively in the last 20 years, now more people survive for longer, so the exercise has a smaller impact
7) heart disease takes 30-50 years to develop, hence in 1992 they were using data from the people born 1940-1960, it means the paper was out of date the moment it was written, it's the problem when you use cohort data, it only tells you what you needed to know 20 odd years ago
7) you may just be delaying the heart disease
8) everyone has to die somehow, for the health economics better to die of heart disease then dementia in your 90s in a nursing home
from my own point of view, i don't really care if it's legal or not, i know i wear one, i recommend everyone to wear one, i've sent countless injuries that would have been prevented or reduced if they'd had one
I think things have moved on since 1992, i don't think it would have such a big negative impact, i think people are more accepting of safety laws. There will always be those who don't want to wear one, the same was true with motorbike helmets and seat belts
My final point is i also work for the medical travel insurance industry, read your insurance forms carefully, most of them will expect you to wear a helmet if you cycle overseas, it's something like you have to wear all relevant safety equipment, lots of people on motorbikes and cycles have chosen not to, and found themselves paying for their own medical costs overseas and it gets expensive, really expensive really really fast
i hope this makes sense, sorry i've gone on so long